More about Complex and Complicated

If you didn’t read my previous post about these two words, do so now. You need its definitions. And one more definition: chaotic. A chaotic system is completely deterministic, but is impossible to forecast because you can’t describe the initial conditions in enough detail. that’s why weather forecasts are only for a week or so, and they are often wrong. Our atmosphere has no free will, but we have too many things to measure to be very accurate.

I have long held the opinion that our country’s society, and it’s relations to other countries is so complicated that it’s impossible to predict with certainty the the outcome (outcomes) of a governmental policy decision will be, particularly when you take differnt time spans into account. I used this idea to comfort myself when someone I didn’t like got elected. In many respects it doesn’t matter who’s in charge because neither you nor they can tell for sure what will be the full effects of their decisions.

I just ran into this thought-provoking article by  a mathematician who formalizes my opinion. I was right!